顶刊方法追踪

聚焦计量经济学顶刊(AER / QJE / JPE / REStud / RES)与统计顶刊(JASA、JBES)及 Econometrica 的方法论文与 AI 交叉议题(异质性处理效应、双机器学习、敏感度分析等),按季度整理方法分布与代表性条目;并对接 CrossRef 官方接口展示各刊最新上线论文,每日缓存更新。

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JPE计量经济2026-10-15
Closing Ranks: Organized Labor and Immigration
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JPE计量经济2026-10-15
A Theory of Economic Coercion and Fragmentation
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JPE计量经济2026-10-13
Firm Heterogeneity and the Impact of Immigration: Evidence from German Establishments
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JPE计量经济2026-10-13
Buying Data from Consumers: The Impact of Monitoring in U.S. Auto Insurance
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JPE计量经济2026-10-13
The Demand for Mobility: Evidence from an Experiment with Uber Riders
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AER计量经济2026-10-01
A Model of the Attention Economy: Data, Platforms, and Discovery

This paper develops a dynamic model of the attention economy featuring two interlinked markets: a product market, where consumers have limited awareness of firms, and an attention market, where platforms attract attention by investing in free services (e.g., social media, streaming, podcasts) and sell targeted ads using data on consumer preferences. The model provides a tractable framework in which platform investment, ad-driven discovery, product demand, and ad revenue are jointly determined. The effects of data and interoperability policies can reverse over time, platform quality may be inefficiently high or low, and the rise of data-rich digital advertising can coincide with a declining ad revenue-to-GDP ratio. (JEL D43, D44, D58, D83, L86, M37)

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AER计量经济2026-10-01
Taxing Top Wealth: Migration Responses and Their Aggregate Economic Implications

Using administrative data from Scandinavian countries, we provide evidence on international migration responses to wealth taxes and evaluate their aggregate economic implications. We find significant migration responses among the wealthy: A 1 percentage point increase in the top wealth tax rate decreases the stock of wealthy taxpayers by about 2 percent. A large fraction of the wealthy are business owners, and their businesses are negatively affected by owner out-migration. The aggregate effects are nevertheless modest: The migration responses to a 1 percentage point increase in the top wealth tax rate reduce employment by 0.02 percent, investments by 0.07 percent, and value added by 0.10 percent. (JEL D31, E22, E24, F22, H24, L26, K34)

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AER计量经济2026-10-01
Who Marries Whom? The Role of Segregation by Race and Class

Americans rarely marry outside their race or class group, a pattern with well-documented implications for inequality and intergenerational mobility. Limited exposure may partly explain these low intergroup marriage rates. We instrument for exposure using variation in childhood neighborhoods based on whether other race and class groups had more opposite-sex children of similar age. Exposure increases interclass (high- and low-parent income) marriage but has no detectable effect on interracial (White and Black) marriage. A spatial marriage model predicts that residential segregation—one of many forms of exposure—accounts for more than one-third of marital sorting by class but less than 5 percent by race. (JEL J12, J15, J62, R23)

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2026 Q1 方法报告

进入 2026 年,顶刊实证在「大规模行政数据 + 清晰识别」的范式上延续,同时统计与机器学习期刊(JASA、JBES)与经济理论顶刊(Econometrica)在因果推断上的对话更密集:一方面,交错 DID、事件研究与非参数偏差讨论仍是发表与复现的焦点;另一方面,面向高维协变量与复杂响应的 DML、随机实验中异质性效应的后处理推断、以及针对未测混杂的敏感度分析框架,正在成为连接 AI 科研工具与可发表计量标准的关键接口。

DID / 事件研究15 篇
因果机器学习 / CATE10 篇
Panel8 篇
IV / 弱工具检验7 篇
DML / 双稳健6 篇
RDD6 篇
敏感度分析5 篇
结构 / GE 实证4 篇
SCM3 篇

历史报告

2025 Q1

本季度在五大经济顶刊(AER/QJE/JPE/REStud/REStat)基础上,同步纳入 JASA、JBES 与 Econometrica 中与计量因果及 AI 交叉的前沿工作。实证主线仍是 DID 与事件研究(含交错采纳下的纠偏估计),同时机器学习用于异质性处理效应(CATE)、双稳健/双机器学习与敏感度分析的文章显著增加。RDD 与 IV 在结构应用与弱工具检验上保持稳定产出;与「预测—因果」张力相关的讨论(如交互项遗漏偏误、分类目标与倾向得分)在应用计量中受到更多关注。

2024 Q4

2024年第四季度,DID方法继续主导实证研究领域。Staggered DID新估计量(Callaway-Sant'Anna, Sun-Abraham)的使用率较去年同期上升显著。IV方法在贸易和劳动经济学领域的应用最为活跃。

论文条目

论文期刊时间
Evaluating the Impact of Urban Transit Infrastructure: Evidence from Bogotá's TransMilenio
Nick Tsivanidis
DOI →
AER2026 Q1
Omitted Variable Bias in Interacted Models: A Cautionary Tale
Benjamin Feigenberg, Javaeria A. Qureshi
DOI →
RES2025 Q3
Lives Versus Livelihoods: The Impact of the Great Recession on Mortality and Welfare
Amy Finkelstein, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, Frank Schilbach, Jonathan Zhang
DOI →
QJE2025 Q3
Undergraduate Gender Diversity and the Direction of Scientific Research
Francesca Truffa, Ashley Wong
DOI →
AER2025 Q2
Fisher–Schultz Lecture: Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments, With an Application to Immunization in India
Victor Chernozhukov, Mert Demirer, Esther Duflo, Iván Fernández-Val
DOI →
ECTA2025 Q2
Doubly-Valid/Doubly-Sharp Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Inference with Unmeasured Confounding
Jacob Dorn, Kevin Guo, Nathan Kallus
DOI →
JASA2025 Q1
Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments
Kosuke Imai, Michael Lingzhi Li
DOI →
JBES2025 Q1
Large-Scale Education Reform in General Equilibrium: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from India
Gaurav Khanna
DOI →
JPE2025 Q1
Revisiting Event-Study Designs: Robust and Efficient Estimation
Kirill Borusyak, Xavier Jaravel, Jann Spiess
DOI →
REStud2024 Q4
Contamination Bias in Linear Regressions
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Peter Hull, Michal Kolesár
DOI →
AER2024 Q4