顶刊方法追踪

聚焦计量经济学顶刊(AER / QJE / JPE / REStud / RES)与统计顶刊(JASA、JBES)及 Econometrica 的方法论文与 AI 交叉议题(异质性处理效应、双机器学习、敏感度分析等),按季度整理方法分布与代表性条目;并对接 CrossRef 官方接口展示各刊最新上线论文,每日缓存更新。

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最新论文

JPE计量经济2026-11-13
The Welfare Effects of Price Shocks and Household Relief Packages: Evidence from an Energy Crisis
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JPE计量经济2026-11-13
Noisy Global Value Chains
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REStud计量经济2026-11-13
Daddy’s Girl: Daughters, Managerial Decisions, and Gender Inequality

Abstract Using Danish registry data, we study how managers’ gender attitudes shape gender inequality in the workplace by exploiting the birth of a daughter—as opposed to a son—as a plausibly exogenous shock to male managers’ gender attitudes. Comparing within-firm changes in women’s labour outcomes depending on the gender of the manager’s newborn child, we find that women’s relative earnings and employment increase by 4.4% and 2.9%, respectively, following the birth of the manager’s first daughter. These effects are driven by an increase in managers’ propensity to substitute male hires with female hires that have comparable education, hours worked, and earnings. Consistent with this substitution channel, we do not detect any significant effect on firm performance. Because these effects emerge rapidly and persist over time, we can rule out the need for prolonged exposure to gender issues or for personal incentives tied to improving conditions for their own daughters as prerequisites for managers to promote gender equality within their firms.

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REStud计量经济2026-11-13
Aspiring to a Better Future: Can a Simple Psychological Intervention Reduce Poverty?

Abstract Do higher aspirations for the future motivate people living in poverty to make long-term investments? Do their aspirations increase when economic conditions improve? To answer these questions, we run a 415-village field experiment with 8,300 women living in poverty in rural Kenya. We design an 80-minute workshop to help people set higher aspirations and plan to achieve them. We cross-randomise this with large unconditional cash transfers. The workshop substantially raises aspirations, labour supply, investment, revenue, and living standards 17 months later, relative to a placebo workshop. Increases in aspirations are the most likely mechanism to explain the economic effects. Cash transfers also raise aspirations, which might help to explain why transfers increase labour supply and investment. We conclude that aspirations respond to both economic and psychological interventions, contribute to investment decisions and living standards, and are important considerations for development policy.

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QJE计量经济2026-11-11
Labor Market Tightness and the Reversal of Inequality Trends in Germany

Abstract Germany experienced a sharp rise in wage inequality over the two decades leading up to the Great Recession. However, a remarkable trend reversal occurred in 2010—well before the introduction of the minimum wage in 2015—when wages at the bottom of the distribution began to grow more rapidly than those higher up. This paper attributes the reversal to an increasingly tight labor market after the Great Recession, supported by strong domestic demand, and operating through several interrelated and mutually reinforcing channels. Consistent with this hypothesis, job-to-job transition rates and between-job wage growth rose markedly after the recession, especially for workers at the lower rungs of the job ladder. Concurrently, workers increasingly moved from low-paying to higher-paying firms, compressing the worker-weighted distribution of firm wage premia. Tighter labor markets also reduced assortative matching between workers and firms, lowered the skill premium, and weakened firms’ monopsony power.

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JPE计量经济2026-11-11
Beliefs and the Incentive Effects of Preferential College Admissions: Evidence from an Experiment and a Structural Model
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JPE计量经济2026-11-11
Two-Sided Search in International Markets
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JPE计量经济2026-11-11
Collusion through Common Leadership
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2026 Q1 方法报告

进入 2026 年,顶刊实证在「大规模行政数据 + 清晰识别」的范式上延续,同时统计与机器学习期刊(JASA、JBES)与经济理论顶刊(Econometrica)在因果推断上的对话更密集:一方面,交错 DID、事件研究与非参数偏差讨论仍是发表与复现的焦点;另一方面,面向高维协变量与复杂响应的 DML、随机实验中异质性效应的后处理推断、以及针对未测混杂的敏感度分析框架,正在成为连接 AI 科研工具与可发表计量标准的关键接口。

DID / 事件研究15 篇
因果机器学习 / CATE10 篇
Panel8 篇
IV / 弱工具检验7 篇
DML / 双稳健6 篇
RDD6 篇
敏感度分析5 篇
结构 / GE 实证4 篇
SCM3 篇

历史报告

2025 Q1

本季度在五大经济顶刊(AER/QJE/JPE/REStud/REStat)基础上,同步纳入 JASA、JBES 与 Econometrica 中与计量因果及 AI 交叉的前沿工作。实证主线仍是 DID 与事件研究(含交错采纳下的纠偏估计),同时机器学习用于异质性处理效应(CATE)、双稳健/双机器学习与敏感度分析的文章显著增加。RDD 与 IV 在结构应用与弱工具检验上保持稳定产出;与「预测—因果」张力相关的讨论(如交互项遗漏偏误、分类目标与倾向得分)在应用计量中受到更多关注。

2024 Q4

2024年第四季度,DID方法继续主导实证研究领域。Staggered DID新估计量(Callaway-Sant'Anna, Sun-Abraham)的使用率较去年同期上升显著。IV方法在贸易和劳动经济学领域的应用最为活跃。

论文条目

论文期刊时间
Evaluating the Impact of Urban Transit Infrastructure: Evidence from Bogotá's TransMilenio
Nick Tsivanidis
DOI →
AER2026 Q1
Omitted Variable Bias in Interacted Models: A Cautionary Tale
Benjamin Feigenberg, Javaeria A. Qureshi
DOI →
RES2025 Q3
Lives Versus Livelihoods: The Impact of the Great Recession on Mortality and Welfare
Amy Finkelstein, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, Frank Schilbach, Jonathan Zhang
DOI →
QJE2025 Q3
Undergraduate Gender Diversity and the Direction of Scientific Research
Francesca Truffa, Ashley Wong
DOI →
AER2025 Q2
Fisher–Schultz Lecture: Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments, With an Application to Immunization in India
Victor Chernozhukov, Mert Demirer, Esther Duflo, Iván Fernández-Val
DOI →
ECTA2025 Q2
Doubly-Valid/Doubly-Sharp Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Inference with Unmeasured Confounding
Jacob Dorn, Kevin Guo, Nathan Kallus
DOI →
JASA2025 Q1
Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments
Kosuke Imai, Michael Lingzhi Li
DOI →
JBES2025 Q1
Large-Scale Education Reform in General Equilibrium: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from India
Gaurav Khanna
DOI →
JPE2025 Q1
Revisiting Event-Study Designs: Robust and Efficient Estimation
Kirill Borusyak, Xavier Jaravel, Jann Spiess
DOI →
REStud2024 Q4
Contamination Bias in Linear Regressions
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Peter Hull, Michal Kolesár
DOI →
AER2024 Q4